Visual Data Report of the National Economic Council – October 2025

Indonesia’s economy in Q3 2025 is projected to remain strong, though slower than in Q2 2025, in line with moderate domestic performance. Public optimism remains intact; however, employment outlooks continue to trend pessimistically. Investment performance is expected to stay limited, reflected in the decline of the manufacturing PMI and weak sales of heavy equipment and vehicles. Government consumption up to August remains below its historical pattern, although some acceleration has been observed. On the external front, the trade surplus continued to widen in August 2025. Exports maintained growth despite moderation, while imports continued to contract, indicating subdued domestic demand. Inflation rose in September 2025, driven by increases in core inflation and volatile food prices, particularly red chili commodities. In line with inflation projections that remain low and within the target range, Bank Indonesia lowered the BI Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in September 2025, aiming to stimulate credit growth, which has so far remained modest.